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Economic Review

5/05/08

Are television market analysts really worth listening to?

Over the past week and for some time now, television analysts have gotten away with outrageous comments on various aspects in the investment market arena.   The latest nonsense that was uttered over the airways just last week was the assertion that the US Goldi Locks scenario was still somewhat intact.  Here’s a reality check.  The latest downturn in the US economy has clearly deemed the Goldi Locks scenario a complete farce as it was a function of a variety of bubble related, unsustainable factors that helped consumers consume at an unprecedented pace.  The host of interest rate cuts has now put the US interest rate scenario at about a 100 basis point into a negative real rate scenario.  A number of US companies needed bail out funds from foreign countries.  Global central banks have injected billions into the markets to maintain liquidity and one major Investment bank needed to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve.  Goldi Locks….you’ve got to be kidding me.

Another pathetic bout of media analysis comes in the form of consistently jumping on the Tech bandwagon whenever the US Equity sector manages to rebound….and the one name that constantly gets cited as the hot buy? Intel.  Just to give you an idea on how great Intel stock is, it’s down about 30% from levels reached just four years ago.  We won’t say how far it is off its all time highs.  TV analysts…too much flapping, not enough real content.

 

Stephan Kudyba (MBA, PhD)                      THE MARKET DOCTOR

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