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Economic Review

9/22/2009

As the post Summer markets continue to trade, it appears that the consensus on the state of affairs is simply, Confusion.

Latest reports from a variety of sources are pontificating that the recession is over, US Equity markets have extended their rally to post double digit gains for the year of 2009, and there have been some spotty signs of a pick-up in Retail activity and Housing data.  However, the unemployment rate continues to rise with actual unemployment probably well into the double digits, the US$ has suffered significant losses, the commercial real estate sector is experiencing severe problems, short term interest rates remain at near zero, the deficit has exploded higher with interest payments on debt reaching alarming levels, trillions of dollars in bail outs and “stimulus money” have been allocated but remain difficult to track. 

In case you’ve thought about any of this or have felt like throwing in the towel on trying to make sound fundamental sense of the state of affairs, don’t feel bad, it seems as though that’s become a growing trend.  So what’s the bottom line?  Simply put, the argument solidly falls on the side of the existence of extremely high risk in the realm of economic growth.  So, when dabbling in trading or investing to try to catch some positive returns in a variety of markets, be wary of that risk.  

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